DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/26 10:46
Corn on the Way Up Midday Tuesday
Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents higher, beans are flat to 1 cent higher and wheat
is 1 cent lower to 16 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 130 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 0.12 higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are firmer
with crude up $0.75. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious
metals are weaker with gold down $18.00.
Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Tuesday with trade bouncing from
early weakness to test nearby resistance levels Tuesday morning. Harvest
progress remained ahead of average on the weekly report at 66% versus 53% on
average, but will fall closer to average next week with more midweek rains on
deck for many. Ethanol margins should remain stable to better short term, with
production continuing to surge despite natural gas prices as we work to rebuild
stocks. Basis should remain steady to firmer short term as harvest pressure
eases. On the December contract, we have chart support at the 20-day at $5.32
and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $5.48 as trade pushed back into last
week's highs again at $5.43.
Soybean trade are flat to a penny higher at midday with trade working to
consolidate the Monday rebound into midweek with slowing harvest and another
round of fresh export sales at 199,000 metric tons to China and 125,730 metric
tons to Mexico. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is 0.65 cent to 0.75 cent
lower with product values struggling to hold gains. Harvest will slow with
recent rains but remained above average on the weekly report at 73% versus 70%
on average. Brazil looks to have good short-term conditions with Argentina more
mixed nearby but overall major issues limited in early planting. On the
November soybean chart, trade is just above the 20-day at $12.35 with the
recent high at $12.49 1/2 the next round up, with further support at the lower
Bollinger Band at $11.90.
Wheat trade is 1 cent lower to 16 cents higher with spring wheat moving to
fresh highs and KC following suit while Chicago action struggles. The dollar
remains in the upper part of the recent range in quieter action. Spring wheat
remains at a 2.85-cent premium to Chicago, with KC at 25-cent premium in firmer
action. Weather in the Plains remains fairly neutral for the moment with
planting at 80% complete, same as average, emergence at 55% versus 59% on
average, and good to excellent at 46%, and 20% poor to very poor, 5% better
than the first report last year but in the lower part of the 10-year range. KC
December chart support is at the 20-day at $7.43 with resistance at the upper
Bollinger Band at $7.78, which we have pushed above at midday.
David Fiala can be reached at [email protected]
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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